Monday, April 16, 2012

Technology to Extend Modern Way of Life for a While Longer

"How much longer can things continue like this?" is a common question asked by exasperated people who see all the red flags of this dying culture, economy, and civilization. It's a great question, but, unfortunately, it is not so easy to answer. There are plenty of factors that can affect the time remaining for civilization. No one knows the day nor the hour of the coming collapse. But what we can be certain of in these times is that technology is a powerful force that is easy to both underestimate and overestimate. And despite all the "band-aid and paperclip" approaches the powers that be apply that will obviously not hold forever, technology often steps in and pushes back the eventual, inevitable reckoning. 

Thomas Malthus predicted a population crisis. He rightly observed in his own time how human population increased by multiplication while agricultural expansion increased by addition. In other words, population growth was greater than the ability of the earth to feed everyone. Once the Oil Age hit a little over a century later, people scoffed at the ideas of Malthus. Technology had saved the day! Thanks to oil, agriculture could expand much more, sustaining a much larger global population.

And oil is really the lifeblood of the current global civilization. It is the magic elixir that allows the modern world to exist and function. It allows globalization, greatly increased agricultural ability, consumerism, police states/bloated governments, feminism...many things not inherently part of human existence - the proverbial bells and whistles, good or bad. 

In the past few years, the concept of "Peak Oil" emerged. Oil Production follows a bell curve - oil production rises, and it must inevitably fall. This idea was not too widely known until fairly recently, perhaps the last 3-5 years. And it was met by plenty of scoffers, who, predictably, always seem to fall back on the religion-esque notion of "technology will save us!"

But they are only right in the short term. Oil has become increasingly difficult to recover. The old oil fields are almost done for. But techonology has once again stepped in - not to save us per se, but it has apparently put some more time onto the clock. Alternative oil sources such as oil shale, oil sands, artic oil, and deep-water are now being used, along with techniques like hydraulic fracturing.

It's not exactly technology saving us though. It's temporary. These new sources of oil are dirtier, harder to obtain, and much more toxic than traditional sources. Developing countries, like China, are increasing oil consumption. So problems haven't really been solved. An untenable way of life is being extended. All the while, new problems are being created. And now it won't be so easy to fix anything.

I'm certain that the governments of the world will continue on a ruinous path, spending themselves into the oblivion of debt as long as the oil is flowing. This way of life will continue up until the very moment it cannot any longer.

Keep your eyes on the clock.

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